Cardano (ADA) has been a focal point of crypto market discussions after a major rally to $1.15, sparked by President Trump’s announcement that ADA will be added to the US crypto reserve. Since then, ADA has pulled back to $0.716, where it now holds a key support level. Many traders are watching closely to see if the coin can reclaim higher ground or if it will break below this critical floor.
This post explores the current technical setup for Cardano, the potential paths forward, and the factors that could influence its next major move. We will also look at on-chain data—such as whale holdings and addresses by time held—to see how these metrics may affect the price action.
Cardano’s Price Action: A Closer Look
ADA soared to $1.15 following President Trump’s statement about adding Cardano to the US crypto reserve. This announcement triggered a wave of buying activity and widespread attention from both retail and institutional traders. The subsequent rally propelled ADA into the spotlight, with many believing it could challenge higher resistance levels if market sentiment remained bullish.
Current Support at $0.716
After peaking, Cardano retraced to $0.716, where it has been consolidating for several sessions. This area aligns with a key support zone marked by previous price action. Buyers are trying to defend this level, and so far, the market has respected it. If ADA fails to hold $0.716, it could open the door to a deeper pullback.
On the upside, ADA’s next hurdles include psychological levels near $0.80 and $1.00, which previously acted as resistance zones. A decisive move above these thresholds would indicate renewed bullish momentum.
Bull Scenario: If ADA Holds Support and Moves Higher
If Cardano maintains support at $0.716, buyers may drive the price toward the next Fibonacci retracement levels. The first test would likely be near $0.82, followed by $0.90, and then the psychological barrier of $1.00. Breaking $1.00 with high volume could pave the way for a retest of the $1.15 peak.
From there, if broader market conditions remain positive, ADA could attempt to challenge its previous all-time high (above $3.00), though that would require a strong bullish narrative and a favorable macro environment.
Fundamental Factors to Watch
Several factors can boost ADA’s climb. Cardano’s ongoing network upgrades, increased DeFi adoption, and the broader crypto market sentiment all play pivotal roles. The US crypto reserve narrative remains a major driver. If official details confirm that ADA will be integrated more deeply into national-level reserves, the price could see another significant rally.
Bear Scenario: If ADA Breaks Support and Moves Lower
Should Cardano lose its grip on the $0.716 support, the next immediate level to watch is near $0.65, which aligns with a previous consolidation zone. Below that, the price could test $0.60 or even the high $0.50s if selling pressure intensifies. The market could enter a prolonged correction phase, especially if volume spikes on downward moves.
Risk Factors for the Downside
A negative shift in the global economic climate, stricter regulatory measures, or a sudden drop in crypto market sentiment could accelerate a move below support. If whales or large holders begin selling, it might trigger panic among smaller investors, causing a swift decline. A breakdown in Cardano’s development roadmap or negative news about project fundamentals could also weigh heavily on price.
On-Chain Metrics and Their Impact on Price
Whale Holdings
Data shows whales hold 8.48% of the circulating ADA supply. Although this number might seem small compared to some other cryptocurrencies, these large holders can still influence price action if they decide to buy or sell significant amounts. If whales increase their positions at the current support, it could confirm a bullish stance. Conversely, a mass sell-off by these large holders could drive the price below $0.716.
Addresses by Holdings
- $0 – $1k: 83.19%
- $1k – $100k: 16.36%
- $100k+: 0.45%
This breakdown suggests that most ADA holders own relatively small positions. Retail investors dominate the market, which can lead to heightened volatility. If news or social media sentiment shifts, the collective action of these smaller holders can create sudden buying or selling pressure.
Addresses by Time Held
- Holders (70.92%): These addresses keep ADA for extended periods, reflecting long-term faith in the project.
- Cruisers (22.85%): These addresses hold for moderate durations, often waiting for a suitable market opportunity.
- Traders (6.23%): These addresses move in and out of ADA quickly, contributing to short-term price swings.
The high percentage of holders implies a strong base of investors who believe in Cardano’s long-term potential.
This group can help stabilize the price during market dips. However, cruisers and traders may react swiftly to market developments, intensifying volatility if a support level breaks or if a bullish catalyst appears.
Final Words
Cardano sits at a critical juncture, holding on to $0.716 after an impressive run to $1.15. If this support remains intact, ADA could reclaim higher levels such as $0.82, $0.90, and $1.00, possibly revisiting the recent high of $1.15. In a best-case scenario, it might even set its sights on a new all-time high, especially if major catalysts—like deeper integration into the US crypto reserve—materialize.
On the other hand, a breakdown below $0.716 could expose Cardano to further downside, with $0.65 and $0.60 emerging as potential support zones. On-chain metrics highlight the roles of whales, smaller retail holders, and the mix of long-term believers versus active traders. A surge in whale buying could signal renewed confidence, while a wave of selling from these addresses might push the market lower.
In a volatile crypto landscape, it is essential to watch for fundamental news, track trading volume, and pay attention to major support and resistance levels. Whether ADA continues its upward journey or dips further, staying informed and prepared can help investors navigate the next phase of Cardano’s market cycle.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always conduct thorough research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.
